For European manufacturers, the question is no longer whether U.S. trade policy will affect them, but how to plan around it. Exporters from Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and the United Kingdom are weighing whether to keep shipping into the U.S., add American production, or source key components inside North America. This guide sets out the economic questions to answer before you decide.
Where U.S. trade policy stands
U.S. trade policy changed several times in 2026. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were not authorized. A temporary Section 122 surcharge followed, and when it expired in July, the administration moved to new Section 301 actions. Sector tariffs under Section 232, including on steel, aluminum and autos, have continued throughout. Rates and coverage are still shifting, so any plan should be checked against the current schedule before you commit capital.
Five questions to answer before you invest
- What is your true landed cost today? Product cost, ocean freight, duties, insurance, warehousing and inland transport, compared across scenarios.
- How exposed is your product to Section 232 or Section 301 actions? Exposure depends on product classification and content, not just country of origin.
- Would partial U.S. assembly change the duty picture? Rules of origin and substantial transformation can change the math, and should be confirmed with trade counsel.
- Which U.S. regions fit your operation? Labor, land, energy, port access and state and local incentives vary widely.
- What does the investment return under different policy scenarios? A feasibility model should test high-tariff, low-tariff and changing-tariff cases.
Why Southern California deserves a look
The Los Angeles and Long Beach ports handle a large share of U.S. container trade, and the Inland Empire is one of the country’s largest warehousing and logistics regions. For firms selling into the western U.S. or using Pacific supply chains, it is a natural place to start the analysis.
How GERC helps
- Landed-cost and margin analysis across sourcing and production scenarios
- Feasibility studies and economic models for U.S. facilities
- Supply-chain resiliency reviews that map tariff and policy exposure
- Plain-English trade-policy briefings for your leadership team
About GERC
Global Economic Research Consulting (GERC) is a woman-owned economic consulting firm in San Bernardino, California, near the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex. Our founder, Dr. Shirley Ayangbah, holds a Ph.D. in International Economic and Financial Law and an M.A. in Economics, and has published on WTO digital trade rules, global value chains, and reshoring and nearshoring in U.S. manufacturing. GERC does not provide legal advice or file customs entries; we work alongside your counsel and customs broker.
To discuss your project, email info@gercconsulting.com, call (909) 454-7076, or see our international trade services.