The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) had its first formal joint review in July 2026. The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension, which moves the agreement into annual reviews. The agreement remains in force, but businesses now face more uncertainty about its long-term future.
Why this matters for Canadian companies
Canadian exporters rely on USMCA preferences and rules of origin. Annual reviews mean those terms could change with less notice. Firms should map which products depend on preferential treatment and what the cost would be if the terms changed.
Why this matters for investors from the Gulf and elsewhere
Investors from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries have been active in U.S. industrial and logistics real estate. For these investors, North American trade rules affect tenant demand, cargo volumes and the value of logistics assets. Feasibility work should test how projects perform under several trade scenarios.
Where U.S. trade policy stands
U.S. trade policy changed several times in 2026. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were not authorized. A temporary Section 122 surcharge followed, and when it expired in July, the administration moved to new Section 301 actions. Sector tariffs under Section 232, including on steel, aluminum and autos, have continued throughout. Rates and coverage are still shifting, so any plan should be checked against the current schedule before you commit capital.
A practical checklist
- Identify which shipments depend on USMCA preferences
- Model cost changes if preferences narrow or tariffs rise
- Stress-test project returns for industrial and logistics assets
- Track annual review milestones and plan decision points around them
How GERC helps
- Scenario modeling for trade-policy risk
- Feasibility studies and market research for industrial and logistics projects
- Economic and fiscal impact analysis for public approvals and incentives
- Landed-cost analysis for cross-border supply chains
About GERC
Global Economic Research Consulting (GERC) is a woman-owned economic consulting firm in San Bernardino, California, near the Los Angeles and Long Beach port complex. Our founder, Dr. Shirley Ayangbah, holds a Ph.D. in International Economic and Financial Law and an M.A. in Economics, and has published on WTO digital trade rules, global value chains, and reshoring and nearshoring in U.S. manufacturing. GERC does not provide legal advice or file customs entries; we work alongside your counsel and customs broker.
To discuss your project, email info@gercconsulting.com, call (909) 454-7076, or see our international trade services.